I wrote a bit about what we’re watching today (SPOILER: Florida) here, but in terms of actual predictions…here we go.

I’ve got Hillary winning the election with 308 electoral college votes.

States of note:

  • Georgia: Trump (not a bold pick, but I live there).
  • Nevada: Clinton
  • Florida: Clinton
  • North Carolina: Trump
  • Ohio: Trump
  • Pennsylvania: Clinton
  • Colorado: Clinton

For your own convenience, I’ve embedded my map projection below.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com



Senate will be controlled by Republicans. It just seems like we’re going to get a lot of down-ballot variation here. In some regards, that might be the greatest motivator for conservative voters. The general consensus is that Clinton will win the presidential election (my gut is a 4% popular vote margin and the electoral breakdown above). But very few people really like Hillary Clinton. Outside of Donald Trump, Hillary may be the most unlikeable candidate in presidential history. So if you can’t support Trump (as a conservative) and you don’t necessarily love Clinton (even potentially as a democrat), you might be motivated to accept her inevitable election while also trying to cap her political capital with a down-ballot Republican vote.


I’ll come back in later and we can all laugh at how off I am. Also, check out Tusk Media’s Twitter feed – we’re going to be pushing election coverage all day long including updates from the polls, projections, guesses and weird stories. Most importantly: We’ll be giving live video analysis of election results tonight. So check it out.

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