On January 25, 2019, Narwhal Capital released its more condensed 42-slide 2018 Macro Review and 2019 Macro Outlook Outlook for public consumption.The commentary contained therein is the firm’s opinion at the time of publication and not intended to be investment advice.

The commentary is divided into 3 parts.

In part 1, we review the “high hopes” that characterized January 2018 and discuss how the economy failed to live up to those high hopes as the year progressed. In this section, we discuss what happened in Q4 and how the concern of the day shifted from one that the US economy was getting too hot to one where trade wars brought about fears of recession

In part 2, we give our take on 2019. It seems readily apparent that the economic expansion will slow. But we are not calling for a recession. Just a more modest pace of growth. Employment is strong and the size of the labor force is growing as the participation rate improves. We are indeed moving from an environment of “synchronized global growth” to one of “non-synchronized global growth”.

In part 3, we discuss the most important areas to watch early in 2019. There are certainly more questions than answers as we begin 2019 and what happens to the questions will have a significant bearing on the stock market trajectory.

Please click on the link below to view the PDF.

4Q18 NCM Macro


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