On April 13, 2020, Narwhal Capital released its Q1 2020 Macro Review and Outlook. The commentary contained therein is the firm’s opinion at the time of publication and not intended to be investment advice.
Our theme for this is quarter is “Get Through to Where we are Going.” While itching ears want to know when we will “get back”, it is a far better question to ask “how do we get through” the current malaise. And that is what we attempt to map out for you in this presentation
The commentary is divided into 5 parts.
In part 1, we review the busy first quarter, from the first week where the US reached the brink of war with Iran, to the last week when a majority of the world’s economies were in virtual lockdown.
Part 2 outlines – in very straightforward terms – what the virus known as COVID-19 actually is and how that has manifested itself in a health crisis and a financial crisis. We talk about the three clear strategies being employed by healthcare professions – managing demand, increasing capacity, and figuring out treatments. We also discuss the economic treatment required for the current economic chemotherapy we are undergoing.
The third section addresses the elephant in the room: The implications social distancing have for economic growth and whether or not – empirically – social distancing is even having an impact on viral transmission.
Fourth, we discuss the economic consequences and whether “getting back” is even possible. Spoiler: in terms of market levels, it is, but the road may continue to be very bumpy indeed.
Which means, in part 5, we must navigate these bumps in the road. We discuss the game plan to “get through” and that requires humility, honesty, and discipline.
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